Abstract

This study investigates the effects of US sanctions on crude oil prices, and estimates the associated losses or gains accrued to US output due to economic coercion. Using a sample of US sanctions imposed between 1987 and 2016, we find that oil prices exhibit a significant abnormal adjustment in magnitude. We show that the nature of the change is decided by the target country's status either as a net importer or exporter of oil. Our findings further reveal that while the abnormal rise in oil prices, associated with sanctions on net exporters, inflict losses on US output, coercive measures on net importers give rise to economic gains due to significant decline in oil valuations. Such externalities do not appear to be considered when designing and deploying measures of economic coercion. (JEL Q41, Q43, Q48).

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Year of Publication
2022
Journal
International Review of Financial Analysis
URL
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1057521922002678?via%3Dihub
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2022.102314
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Crude Oil Pricing and Statecraft: Lessons from US Economic Sanctions.

Associate Professor, Department of Finance

Citation: 1.Crude Oil Pricing and Statecraft: Lessons from US Economic Sanctions. International Review of Financial Analysis. 2022. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2022.102314

In: International Review of Financial Analysis

Published by: , 2022

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