Abstract

This paper investigates whether measures of aggregated insider trading could have predicted the wider economic change that occurred in the UK around the time of the financial crisis. Seyhun's (1988, 1992) cash flow hypothesis is the underpinning rationale driving the investigation. Within a vector auto-regressive framework, this study disentangles the relationship between returns and the activities of insiders in UK listed firms in order to validate Seyhun's assertions in this context. Findings suggest that, unlike the US, the relationship is not present. Instead, aggregate measures of trading decisions show that insiders are more likely driven by public perception than by private information.

Year of Publication
2016
Journal
International Review of Financial Analysis
URL
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1057521916300801?via%3Dihub
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2016.05.005
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An Unreliable Canary: Insider Trading, the Cash Flow Hypothesis and the Financial Crisis

Associate Professor, Department of Finance

Citation: An Unreliable Canary: Insider Trading, the Cash Flow Hypothesis and the Financial Crisis. International Review of Financial Analysis. 2016. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2016.05.005

In: International Review of Financial Analysis

Published by: , 2016

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